The 7-day repo rate is in a loose state. Monetary policy has no reason to continue easing.
The 7-day repo rate is biased toward easing. Monetary policy has no reason to continue easing. ■ Liu Weijie, trainee reporter of our newspaper, recently changed the deputy governor Liu Guoqiang to put forward suggestions for judging liquidity at the regular briefing of the State Council policy held by the State Council.Judging the liquidity can see the fluctuation of DR007.
”The so-called DR007 interest rate refers to the 7-day repurchase rate pledged by interbank deposit financial institutions with interest rate debt as a pledge. The interest rate was released on December 15, 2014.
Xu Gao, chief economist of China Everbright Securities Asset Management Co., Ltd., said in an interview with “Securities Daily” reporter, “It is more appropriate to look at the short-term interest rate index between banks rather than how to use monetary policy operations.
Xu Gao said that the inter-bank market liquidity affects multiple aspects of each other, and the simultaneous monetary policy operation is only one of them. Therefore, monetary policy in the actual sense includes more monetary policy operations, plusThe total effect caused by other factors, and the total effect will be reflected in the interest rate level of the interbank market, especially the short-term interest rate, so DR007 is very alternative.
At present, the most important adjustment target of monetary policy is the DR007-based interest rate corridor. By adjusting DR007, short-term liquidity and cost-risk interest rates are adjusted.
Tao Jin, an expert from Suning Institute of Finance, told a reporter from the Securities Daily that monetary and monetary policies are undergoing a transformation. The important content is that the intermediate target has shifted from quantitative indicators to price indicators. Social finance or M2 are no longer constituted.Intermediate goals or adjustment measures of preliminary monetary policy, replacing the ultimate goals and results of monetary policy.
Therefore, it is necessary to look at the monetary policy orientation from the two aspects of short-term liquidity such as DR007 and long-term leverage such as social finance.
Tao Jin said that since this year, DR007 changes have become larger, which indicates that the frequency and intensity of the extension have increased to a certain length.
Especially since April, DR007 has increased significantly, and in fact, the DR007 hub in February, March, and April has continued to rise, so the market is beginning to worry that monetary policy will tighten.
Xu Gao believes that the current level of DR007 is slightly higher than the low point of the previous two months, but it is not significant, and it is significantly lower than the average levels in 2017 and 2018. It is still loose in terms of short-term returns.State, but compared to February, the average level in March will be slightly tightened.
Tao Jin said that there was a turbulent factor in the rise in interest rates in April. This was due to the fact that the company was in the period of centralized tax payment in April, the inter-bank loan interest rates, and the banks had to hand over these taxes to the state treasury through reserves, which directly causedBank liquidity decreased and uniform interest rates increased.
Looking into the future, Tao Jin believes that as the above-mentioned disturbance factors still exist in May and June, this is the uncertainty caused by the DR007 action.
More importantly, from the position of the decision-makers at the briefing, it can be initially judged that in the multi-target policy system, the target for economic growth has continued to increase in the near future, and the GDP in the first quarter exceeded expectations, and the CPI returned to the “2 era”” The average growth rate of social finance and M2 has exceeded the growth rate of nominal GDP, so 北京桑拿洗浴保健 there is no reason for monetary policy to continue to be loose, and there is a possibility of tightening marginally.
Overall, this is also in line with the expected “camera inherent choice” and “moderate elasticity” orientation style.